Latest health unit COVID-19 update reports 476 confirmed cases, 36 deaths – incident rate lower in Muskoka

The median age of cases who have recovered is 50 years compared to the median age of 83 years among deceased cases

The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit has confirmed 476 current cases of COVID-19, including 389 recovered and 36 deaths.
The incidence rate in Muskoka remains significantly lower than the rate in Simcoe County, Simcoe Muskoka and Ontario. The vast majority (96%) of confirmed cases reside in Simcoe County.
The median age of cases who have recovered is 50 years compared to the median age of 83 years among deceased cases. One-quarter of our 476 cases are associated with a local institutional outbreak.
Seniors 80 years of age or older have the highest incidence rate (189 new cases per 100,000 population) and the highest case fatality rate (36 deaths per 100 cases).
In March, travel was the most common means of acquiring COVID-19. By May, most cases are community-acquired or outbreak-related. There are outbreaks in long-term care facilities and retirement home in our area. See the list of current institutional outbreaks for more details. 
Other information:
Estimating Local COVID-19 Transmission
Tables of Case Counts by Age, Status & Transmission
Epidemic Curve by Date of Symptom Onset
Actions individuals can take everyday to protect themselves and others include:
• Stay home as much as possible (this applies to people who have not travelled outside of the country or who are not self-isolating with symptoms of COVID-19 and must stay at home.
• Practise physical distancing by keeping two metres between you and another person, unless they are members of your household.
Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 15 seconds or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
If you think you have COVID-19 symptoms or have been in close contact with someone who has it, use the self-assessment tool to help determine how to seek further care.
If you need immediate medical attention you should call 911 and tell them your symptoms and if you have travelled.
The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit used a simulation model developed by the University of Toronto to help us understand the possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in our area. Please see the linked presentation for more details.
In summary, the results suggest:
• Intense physical distancing, or moderate physical distancing with increased case finding and isolation, is the best way to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.
• Without physical distancing being applied for at least 12 of the next 24 months, it is projected that Ontario would not have enough hospital ICU beds.
• Applying physical distancing in a repeated way could prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed and allow mental health and economic breaks for everyone.
A repeated cycle of physical distancing would lift physical distancing rules to allow people to return to a more ‘normal’ life and then restore physical distancing rules as cases start to re-appear.
As of April 22, 2020, the list of confirmed cases is now available via SMDHU’s new tool:  the COVID-19 Case Explorer.

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