COVID-19 prevention measures do appear to be bending the curve

Approximately one-quarter of all cases reported last week were associated with Roberta Place Long-Term Care Home outbreak in Barrie.


Measures to stem the tide of COVID-19 seem to be working, based on new data that shows new cases in Ontario continue to crest downward from recent peaks of more than 3,000 a day.
The province reported 1,740 new cases today, and 63 deaths. But still, it seems to continue a trend away from daily highs that had health officials and politicians warning that intensive care beds (ICU) were rapidly filling.
The Ministry of Health is reporting there are now 1,466 patients in Ontario hospitals being treated for COVID-19, with 383 in ICU beds; of that number, 298 are on a ventilator. There are about 1,700 such beds across the province. The most recent numbers also show a decline in COVID-19 patients taking up ICU beds.
Nationally, over the past seven days 37,943 cases were reported, a drop of 19 per cent from the previous seven days. However, there were 1,118 deaths reported, an increase of eight per cent over the same time period. Across the country, 4,038 people are being treated in hospitals,
The growth rate seems to be dipping in the Simcoe/Muskoka region, with the health unit reporting an average daily rate of 1.3 per cent for the most recent week, a continuing decline.
More than 15,000 doses of the fizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine have now been administered through the Simcoe/Muskoka region, most of them going to frontline workers in local hospitals, long-term-care homes, and retirement homes, the health unit reports.
“This includes 932 individuals that have received both of the required doses of the vaccine. In addition, 2846 (or 89%) long-term care residents have received their first dose,” says the report.
“There have been 35 new cases reported to the health unit for the current week. There were 439 new cases reported to the health unit last week (week of Jan. 17), slightly lower than the 448 cases reported for the week of Jan. 10. Approximately one-quarter of all cases reported last week were associated with Roberta Place Long-Term Care Home outbreak in Barrie.”
Based on projections, if this level of growth continues there will be about 575 cases reported during the week of Feb. 14- 20, or about 82 cases per day with a projected weekly incidence rate of 100 cases per 100,000 population. That’s a decline from previous projections of 750 cases.
There are now 5,180 confirmed cases in the region, and 127 deaths. There have been more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19 in the region’s long-term-care homes, with 25 per cent of the cases resulting in deaths.
To send the curve bending in the other direction, the growth rate needs to be below one. It’s a key indicator to determine if infection rates are moving in the right direction … downward. If the value is two, that means one person is responsible for passing the infection to two people. 
The region, along with the rest of the province, is currently in stay-at-home mode. Premier Doug Ford said the measures are necessary to halt the rapid growth of COVID-19 cases. Click here to read what the measures mean for Barrie residents.

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