Are COVID-19 prevention measures starting to bend the curve?

There were 126 new cases reported to the health unit for the current week. There were 450 new cases reported to the health unit last week (week of Jan. 10), lower than the 495 cases reported for the week of Jan. 3.

Are measures to stem the tide of COVID-19 working? Based on new data that shows new cases in Ontario are cresting downward from last week’s previous highs of more than 3,000 a day, they may be.
The province reported 1,913 new cases today, although there are cautions the number may be underreported in the Toronto region. But still, it seems to continue a trend away from daily highs that had health officials and politicians warning that intensive care beds (ICU) were rapidly filling.
The Ministry of Health is reporting there were 1,626 patients in Ontario hospitals being treated for COVID-19, with about 400 in ICU beds; there are about 1,700 such beds across the province.
It is being reported that there were another 46 deaths, bringing the provincial total to 5,479. Of those deaths, 29 were residents of long-term-care homes; more than 40 per cent of these homes in Ontario are experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.
Nationally, over the past seven days 46,880 cases were reported, a drop of 17 per cent from the previous seven days.
The growth rate seems to be dipping in the Simcoe/Muskoka region, with the health unit reporting an average daily rate of 1.4 per cent for the most recent week, a decline from the 1.8 per cent rate of the previous week.
More than 13,000 doses of the fizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine have now been administered through the Simcoe/Muskoka region, most of them going to frontline workers in local hospitals, long-term-care homes, and retirement homes, the health unit reports.
“This includes over 577 individuals that have received both of the required doses of the vaccine. In addition, 2,845 (or 89 per cent) long-term care residents have received their first dose. says the report.
“There have been 126 new cases reported to the health unit for the current week. There were 450 new cases reported to the health unit last week (week of Jan. 10), lower than the 495 cases reported for the week of Jan. 3.”
Based on projections, if this level of growth continues there will be about 595 cases reported during the week of Feb. 7- 13, or about 85 cases per day with a projected weekly incidence rate of 100 cases per 100,000 population. That’s a decline from previous projections of 750 cases.
There are now 4,834 confirmed cases in the region, and 91 deaths. There have been more than 900 cases of COVID-19 in the region’s long-term-care homes, with 25 per cent of the cases resulting in deaths.
To send the curve bending in the other direction, the growth rate needs to be below one. It’s a key indicator to determine if infection rates are moving in the right direction … downward. If the value is two, that means one person is responsible for passing the infection to two people. 
The region, along with the rest of the province, is currently in stay-at-home mode. Premier Doug Ford said the measures are necessary to halt the rapid growth of COVID-19 cases. Click here to read what the measures mean for Barrie residents.

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